FII may keep Indian Stock Market Positive

Equities are expected to sustain their positive momentum as investors are betting on foreign funds to loosen their purse strings as a result of the US Federal Reserve’s decision last week to cut the interest rate. Though there is a feeling that prices of most frontline stocks have run ahead of fundamentals for the time being, many analysts and fund managers believe that the rush of money flow can drive prices to even higher levels. Analysts advise investors to stick to sectors that reflect India’s economic growth such as capital goods, banks, power and telecom, rather than those driven by exports such as software and pharma, at least in the near term. This is because the rupee is expected to strengthen further against the dollar in the long run, driven by strong foreign institutional inflows. On Thursday, the rupee closed beyond the 40-mark against the dollar for the first time in nine years.

Tata Steel

The country's largest private sector steel producer Tata Steel on Monday said it would raise Rs 9,654 crore by issuing securities to existing shareholders, apparently to part finance its acquisition of Anglo-Dutch firm corus. The board of directors of the company have approved the issue of equity shares in 1:5 ratio, wherein one equity share of Rs 300 each would be allotted for every five shares held, raising an amount of Rs 3,654 crore, the company informed the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).

Praj Industries

Praj Industries, knowledge-based firm engaged in bio-processing and engineering today said it will promote energy crops and technology for biofuels production in Philippines along with the Department of Agriculture of that country. Praj Industries has signed a Memorandum of Association (MoA) with Department of Agriculture, Philippines in this regard, the company said in a filing to the Bombay Stock Exchange.
The Government of Philippines has mandated 5 per cent blending of biofuels in all transport fuel sold in the country and are keen to increase the blending limits. At home, the company recently contracted an order from Tata Chemicals for setting up their first sweet sorghum to ethanol plant. In India, Praj Industries would set up a fully integrated, commercial scale plant for ethanol production at Nanded in Maharashtra.

Bajaj Auto

Motilal Oswal Securities has initiated coverage on Bajaj Auto with a ‘buy’ rating and a price target of Rs 3,065, citing increased focus on premium segment motorcycles as a key trigger. “While we expect core business profitability to improve, its insurance business is a potential value driver. We believe that Bajaj Auto’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margin will improve 2QFY08 (July-October) onwards,” the Motilal Oswal note to clients said. “Our view is based on the company’s improving product mix, its reluctance to re-engage in price wars, completion of dealer inventory rationalisation, and accrual of higher duty entitlement pass book (DEPB) benefit,” the note added.

Power Finance Corporation (PFC)

ABN Amro Securities has initiated coverage on Power Finance Corporation (PFC) with a ‘buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 242.70, saying the company’s high business growth visibility, largely stable margins and status as the government’s infrastructure-financing firm make for a compelling proposition. “PFC is treated as a government-financing firm and is therefore exempt from a number of Reserve Bank of India regulations applicable to non-banking finance companies. The status allows PFC much flexibility in lending to power sector projects and in managing its capital structure,” the ABN note to clients said. “We believe this flexibility will be of even more value over the next few years as loan growth should surge ahead,” the note said, adding that while valuations looked rich at current levels, they reflected strong growth prospects.

Tata Power

HSBC Securities has maintained its ‘overweight’ rating on Tata Power, while raising its price target to Rs 1,198 from Rs 843 earlier. “We believe in Tata Power’s ability to expand its generation capacity over next five years. We now expect it to implement 10.3GW by FY2013 against our earlier estimate of 9.4GW,” the HSBC note to clients said. “The coal ministry has allocated coal mines in India to the company, which should reduce its fuel costs substantially.” the note added. “We expect the coal mines to be operational by the end of FY11 and hence we reduce our fuel cost estimates by 14% and 13% for FY12 and FY13, respectively,”

Grasim Industries

Merrill Lynch has upgraded its rating on Grasim Industries to ‘buy’ with a price target of Rs 4,450. “We continue to believe that the cement industry will witness large capacity additions by March 2009(estimated). However, we think the market is not focused on FY09E risks yet and greater focus seems likely only by March-June 2008 when some of the large capacity expansions will commission (seeing is believing),” the Merrill Lynch note to clients said.

Khoday India

Khoday India may see an upside on news that the liquor major is eyeing European markets. The company is gearing up to export two of its whiskies, Peter Scot and Red Knight, to Italy. The stock closed five per cent lower at Rs 253.90.

BHEL

BHEL is in talks with global power equipment firms Siemens, Areva and GE to set up a joint venture in the country to manufacture nuclear power plant equipment. The move is aimed at giving the company a head-start over competition after the nuclear power market opens up with the operationalisation of the Indo-US nuclear deal. This could boost the company’s shares. The stock was down 0.39 per cent at Rs 2032.75.

Moser Baer

Reports that Moser Baer has clinched a deal with Ultra Videos to acquire the latter’s entire movie library for about Rs 50-70 crore could spur the company’s shares higher. Moser Baer outnumber. The deal would instantly give Moser Baer ownership of 700 Hindi film titles, and 300 regional and English-dubbed titles. The stock closed 1.71 lower at Rs 318.50 on Friday.

Bajaj Auto Sept vehicle sales fall

Bajaj Auto Ltd. India's second-biggest motorcycle maker, posted a 23 percent annual fall in vehicle sales in September, but said a newly launched motorbike would help improve sales and operating margins.

Mahindra & Mahindra

M&M surges ahead with 35.8% cumulative growth in September, Mahindra & Mahindra, a part of the $4.5 billion Mahindra Group, consolidated its leadership in the automotive segment substantially in September. Cumulative sales YTD including exports grew by 35.8% in September ’07 with total sales of 1,06,094 vehicles as against 78,144 vehicles for the corresponding period last year. Excluding Logan, M&M sold 93,600 vehicles in the current fiscal as against 78,144 in the corresponding period in the preceding year, registering an approximate 20% YTD increase.

OPEN INTEREST

September series futures witnessed total rollover at 84 per cent, compared with the six months average of 82 per cent. The Nifty rollover was at 77 per cent compared with six months average of 72 per cent.

The October series begins with total open interest of Rs 69,800 crore as against Rs 64,300 crore in the September series. Nifty futures OI increased by 6.7 million to 32.3 million shares. The stocks with active rollovers were Birla Jute (95%), JSW Steel (94%) and GTL (94%).


The Nifty Put Call ratio in October series moved up from 1.03 to 1.20 largely due to the expiry of September futures contract. Nifty Puts added OI of 61.63 lakh shares (+129.1 per cent), while Nifty Call options added 58.16 lakh shares (+97.1 per cent) in open interest.

More than 50 per cent Call options OI was between the 4,900 and 5,200 strike prices. Similarly, the Nifty Put options OI was at the 4,700-5,000 strike prices. This indicates an indecisiveness on the part of the F&O players.

important dates to look out in October

RBI will meet to review the credit policy on 30 October.
FOMC meet, on 31.
result season will start on 11 October, with Infosys coming off its Q2 results.

October has historically been one of the weakest months for the Sensex. Over the last 17 years, since 1990, there have been 5 positive Octobers versus 12 negative Octobers. The average returns in October have been 2.6% negative returns.

FIIs pick up 7% in Sintex

Lehman Brothers, HSBC and Merrill Lynch have come together to pick up a 7% stake in Sintex Industries for nearly Rs 300 crore. The stake was bought from one of the company’s existing shareholders Lightwood Investment which sold 14% of its holding for Rs 560 crore in the open market on Thursday. The transaction was done at Rs 350 per share on a day when Sintex Industries closed 1.7% higher at Rs 361 on the BSE.

Investors must do their homework

New Delhi.
The Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, on Friday cautioned investors over the share indices movements, which continued to be on a roll this week on more buying of select shares by foreign investors.
“My advice to investors is that they should do their homework. And if they cannot do their homework, they should trust those who do their home work. And for speculators, I have no advice,” Mr Chidambaram told reporters here.
The benchmark BSE sensex closed on Friday at a new high of 17,291, up 140 points in a day. On whether the market movement was orderly, Mr Chidambaram said “that is what SEBI is saying”.

Reliance Power plans IPO

Reliance Power, a subsidiary of Anil Ambani group company Reliance Energy (REL), is considering an initial public offering (IPO) to raise about Rs 11,000 crore to fund the ultra mega power projects in Sasan and Rosa. Sources said the company is likely to file a draft red herring prospectus soon. For the Sasan and Rosa projects in UP, Reliance Power needs almost Rs 21,000 crore, which covers the cost for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) equipment purchase and technology hiring.

Reliance Natural Resources Limited (RNRL)

The media had reports on September 25, 2007 that Reliance Natural Resources Limited may sell 20 percent of its stake in methane blocks to strategic investors.

The Exchange, in order to verify the accuracy or otherwise of the information reported in the media and to inform the market place so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded, had written to the officials of the company.

Reliance Natural Resources Limited has vide its letter inter-alia stated, "The Company examines various proposals from time to time, it receives to unlock and create value for its shareholders. The Company has received various proposals both from strategic and financial investors in this direction. The Company is currently examining these options and other options."

U.S. Stocks Climb

U.S. stocks advanced after General Motors Corp. reached a contract agreement with the United Auto Workers and rising oil prices boosted earnings prospects for energy companies. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 5.55, or 0.4 percent, to 1,522.76 at 9:47 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63.16, or 0.5 percent, to 13,841.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 10.81, or 0.4 percent, to 2,694.26.
A bigger-than-expected drop in durable goods orders also bolstered expectations the Federal Reserve will continue reducing interest rates this year to revive economic growth. U.S. stocks rallied the most in four years on Sept. 18 after the Fed cut its benchmark rate by half a percentage point.

Dollar drops to new euro low

The dollar fell Tuesday, hitting a new historical nadir against the euro, after weak housing data and worse-than-expected consumer confidence data raised concerns about the broader economy and fears that the U.S. Federal Reserve might further cut interest rates.

GMR Infrastructure

GMR Infrastructure has informed the stock exchanges that the board of GMR Infrastructure has fixed the record date for the stock split. The record date for the GMR Infrastructure stock split is 08 October 2007. On the record date, the face value of the shares of GMR Infrastructure will be split from 1 share of face value Rs. 10 each to 5 shares of face value Rs. 2 each.

Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC)

ONGC Videsh Ltd, the overseas arm of state-run Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) has won three offshore exploration blocks in Myanmar, contracts for which will be signed tomorrow. The Petroleum Minister, Mr Murli Deora is visiting Myanmar to witness signing of Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) for the three blocks, an official press statement said here on Saturday.

Reliance Makes Oil Discovery

Reliance Industries Ltd., India's largest company by market value, said it discovered oil off the nation's east coast for the first time.
The area, located in the Krishna basin off Andhra Pradesh state, was drilled to a depth of 3,595 meters, the company said today in an e-mailed statement in Mumbai.
The well is close to the region where the company made the world's biggest gas discovery of 2002. The commercially viable reserves in the field are being assessed, Reliance said.

Unitech to enter telecom

Unitech, has decided to enter the mobile telephone business. The company intends to apply for licence to operate in the 22 circle.
To apply for licence, the company will have to pay around Rs 1,680 crore. Besides, it will have to share 5% revenue with the government. But, a licence will come with spectrum. If it is GSM licence, the company will be awarded with 4.4 mega hertz bandwidth spectrum. In case of CDMA licence, the company will be given spectrum of 2.5 mega hertz bandwidth. The Indian market is considered to be one of the most attractive markets in the world with around 7.5 million customers added every month. According to government estimates, the number of the mobile phone subscribers islikely to rise from around 200 million users now to 500 million by 2010. Even if the new players could buy 10% of the additional market share, they could have customer base of around 10 million each in the three years time. The existing players took around seven years to reach the 10 million mark. The new players, the source said, might add even bigger number because they could provide better service to the customers as the base would be smaller in the initial period. Besides, if number portability is allowed and a customer can retain his number even if he changes his operator, the growth rate could increase further.

HDFC may cut interest rates

HDFC Ltd, the biggest player in the home loan segment, on Friday said it may reduce its interest rates next week as the cost of funds has come down.

Gemini Comm to deploy CDMA hardware

The company has bagged a contract to install and commission telecom equipment and connected accessories in 11 Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) circles in India. BSNL Circles include the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan and Kerala.
The deployment will be completed by October 2007. The CDMA deployment will substantially enhance connectivity and clarity across India for BSNL subscribers and expand its mobile network The company’s major clients include Videsh Sanchar Nigam Ltd (VSNL), Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL), BSNL, Tamil Nadu Electricity Board, Airtel, Idea Cellular and Reliance Telecom.

U.S. Futures Gain

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index added 0.4 percent to 376.2, while Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in December gained 0.4 percent to 1,537.5 as of 11:24 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 600 has climbed 2.3 percent this week after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to keep the world's largest economy growing.
U.S. stocks dropped yesterday after the dollar tumbled and oil prices rose to an all-time high, spurring concern inflation will pick up. Asian stocks retreated today

Pharma Sector fear loss

Fearing a loss in export revenues due to the appreciating rupee, pharmaceutical exporters have asked the government to extend relief measures to the sector similar to those being extended to nine select industries.
The industry body fears that the competitiveness of the pharmaceutical sector would go down in the export market if the trend continues and reliefs were not extended.
The pharmaceutical sector contributes nearly five per cent to India's overall export and should be included in the select industries which have been given sops to counter the effect of rising rupee.
The rupee strengthened 63 paise yesterday and would have drastic effects on pharma exports.

Rupee near 9 year high

Rupee edged closer to a fresh nine-year high on Friday, boosted by strong capital inflows, but wariness the central bank may intervene checked the rupee's rise. At 9:37 a.m. (0407 GMT), the partially convertible rupee was at 39.88/89 per dollar, barely changed from Thursday's close of 39.89/90 and in sight of 39.85 -- its highest since May 1998. "These are good levels to take some profits as the rupee has rallied quite a lot this week," said a trader. The rupee has risen 1.7 per cent so far this week as a hefty US rate cut rekindled appetite for high-yielding assets. Rupee is Asia's best performing currency, rising 11 percent since end-2006. A half percentage point cut in US interest rates has widened India's rate premium to 300 basis points – it’s highest in three years and another attraction for foreign investors. Foreigners bought $608.6 million worth of Indian shares on Wednesday, a day after the US rate cut taking their net purchases to $10 billion this year, up from nearly $8 billion in 2006.

Morepen to raise Rs 140

Bulk drug manufacturer Morepen Laboratories said on 20 September it will raise Rs140 crore through the issue of equity shares and warrants to US-based Avenue Capital Group and its promoters.
“The entire Rs140 crore being brought in by the company as fresh capital will be utilized for repayment to banks under Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) scheme for which a settlement has already been arrived at,” the company informed BSE.

ONGC stock may split

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation on Wednesday sought a 40% increase in the price of gas it sells at the government-capped price, even as the state-owned company said that a share-split and bonus issue could be a possibility if the situation demands in the future. "Immediately, there is no decision to do a share-split or a bonus issue... we are sensitive to concerns of small investors that they may be able to buy ONGC shares at current prices... in due course we will resort (to share split and/or bonus issue) but when it will happen I cannot say,'' chairman R S Sharma said after the company's AGM. ONGC scrip rose 5.9% to Rs 901.05 on the share-split and bonus news.

Sweetener for sugar stocks

The government’s plan to give more tax incentives for the ailing sugar industry proved to be a sweetener for sugar stocks. The agriculture minister’s comments saw sugar shares extend gains Thursday on continued buying interest.
There is no justification for the rise in sugar stock prices backed by fundamentals. This is just sentimental.
The government is considering direct conversion of sugarcane to ethanol, instead of molasses, to help farmers cope with falling sugar prices, Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar had said Wednesday.

Rupee breaches 40-level mark

The rupee today appreciated sharply by 30 paise and breached the 40-level mark to more than nine-year high of 39.90/91 against the US currency on heavy capital inflows triggered by interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.
In an active trade at the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market, the domestic currency opened sharply higher at 40.03/05 per dollar from yesterday's close of 40.20/21.
It later rose further to cross 40-mark to a high of 39.89 a dollar, before being quoted at 39.90/91 a dollar in late morning deals.
The rate cut by the US Federal Reserve on Tuesday paved the way for the rupee to breach the 40-mark for the first time since May 13, 1998 when it had ended at 39.85 a dollar.
The rupee has appreciated nearly 58 paise in last two days.
Weak dollar overseas and dollar selling by exporters also helped the rupee's surge, despite spiralling global crude oil prices, dealers said.
Forex dealers anticipated increased capital inflows in equity markets after cut in the US interest rate as dollar will get broadly affected by this move, ultimately impacting positively on the emerging markets like India.
The rupee also got support from biggest gain of 653 points yesterday in the benchmark sensex, which further consolidated today.
Though the rupee breached 40-mark, there was not much intervention from the apex bank to stem the rupee's rise.
Meanwhile, the global crude oil prices remained high over USD 82 a barrel in Asian trade today.

Wall Street still rallies Day 2

U.S. stocks rose on Wednesday as investors extended a rally a day after the Federal Reserve's bold rate cut, betting that lower borrowing costs would keep the economy from slowing further and boost profits.
Shares of mortgage finance companies, drug makers and manufacturers led the broad-based advance after the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by a half-percentage point, the largest reduction in nearly five years.
The cost of capital just went down. A cut in rates is good for investors. It's good for markets.